Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
